In February, China's urea market rose first and then fell.
It is predicted that domestic urea may still be reduced in March.
Then it’s the analysis and forecast of urea market in March by Huafu Melamine Factory.
SUPPLY
Some manufacturers in North China and Central China have maintenance plans next month, and the recovery time in Southwest China is still uncertain.
- It is expected that the daily output will first decrease and then increase.
- In terms of port inventory, some goods are collected at the port, and the total amount is limited, and it is expected that the inventory will fluctuate slightly.
- In terms of corporate inventory, agricultural demand has slowed down, while local maintenance has increased, and corporate inventory has not changed much.
On the whole, the domestic urea market supply is sufficient next month.
DEMAND
- In terms of compound fertilizer, spring ploughing and fertilization are the main focus, existing inventory is digested, dealers replenish on demand, low-end prices gradually disappear, and the market focus is shifted upward. At the same time, some fertilizer companies have clarified preferential policies. In summer, fertilizers will be collected in advance, and dealers will follow up with inquiries.
- In terms of plywood, plywood manufacturers have resumed construction and up their stocking in an orderly manner.
- In terms of agricultural needs, some spring ploughing and replenishment follow-up, and the demand is general.
On the whole, it is expected that demand will increase first and then decrease in March, and agricultural demand will gradually decrease.
RAW MATERIALS
- In terms of natural gas, the recovery time of local gas restrictions is undetermined, and the price range is adjusted.
- In terms of coal, the output of coal mines has recovered, and the resources of the supply side have remained sufficient. As the temperature rises, the demand for thermal coal and civil coal will be significantly weakened, and the industrial demand will gradually increase. The overall supply and demand pattern of anthracite is slightly loose.
On the whole, the price of urea raw materials is limited, and the cost of manufacturers is basically stable.
Huafu Chemicals believes that the domestic urea market continued to be sorted out in March, and merchants tended to purchase rationally. The supply-side equipment was repaired and stockpiled and released; the industrial start-up load increased, and the willingness to purchase gradually increased.
Therefore, from April to May, with the normal start of agricultural demand in various places, the domestic urea market price is sorted and operated in a narrow range, and attention is paid to the downstream construction.
